Working papers
Working papers
Wang, Wuwei (2025). Sword of Damocles - effect of the Juventus verdict on fraudulent earnings management in football.
Lahiri, Kajal and Wuwei Wang (2019). Estimating Macroeconomic Uncertainty and Discord Using Info-Metrics. CESifo Working Paper No. 7674, also published in SSRN: ERN Macroeconomics: Prices, Business Fluctuations, & Cycles eJournal, Vol. 12 No. 88.
Abstract: We apply generalized beta and triangular distributions to histograms from the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) to estimate forecast uncertainty, shocks and discord using information framework, and compare these with moment-based estimates. We find these two approaches to produce analogous results, except in cases where the underlying densities deviate significantly from normality. Even though the Shannon entropy is more inclusive of different facets of a forecast density, we find that with SPF forecasts it is largely driven by the variance of the densities. We use Jenson-Shannon Information to measure ex ante “news” or “uncertainty shocks” in real time, and find that this ‘news’ is closely related to revisions in forecast means, countercyclical, and raises uncertainty. Using standard vector auto-regression analysis, we confirm that uncertainty affects the economy negatively.
Work in progress
Incentives and participation in seminars--an experiment with professional degree students. (with Sijuan Liu)
Published peer reviewed articles
4. Lu, Fei, Wuwei Wang, Minghui Liu, Mei Liu and Dingyi Qi (2024). The non-linear effect of agricultural insurance on agricultural green competitiveness. Technology Analysis & Strategic Management, Vol 36, No. 7, 1414–1429.
Abstract: Increasing agricultural productivity and reducing carbon emissions are two major challenges that China faces. This paper explores how agricultural insurance affects agricultural green total factor productivity (AGTFP) that addresses these two challenges. First, we adopt DDF-GML to measure AGTFP, and the Dagum’s Gini decompositions results show the large differences in AGTFP, with transvariation between subregions contributing the most. Second, we find the U-shaped effect of agricultural insurance on AGTFP in a large country context. The result remains robust after adjusting for time, sample and estimation method of AGTFP. We also construct instrumental variables from the minimum distance from the centroid of counties within a province to the 45 ports in China and two-stage lagged agricultural insurance penetration (AIP) for AIP, and their squares as instrumental variables for AIP2. The conclusion remains robust in 2SLS model. Third, the findings confirm three channels for agricultural insurance to influence the AGTFP: environmentally friendly production, labor inputs and operation scale. We further propose policy advice to promote China’s agricultural modernization and point out further research directions in this field.
3. Wang, Wuwei, Fei Lu and Junqian Wu (2023). Effects of VAR on the effective playing time in Chinese Super League. China Sport Science, Vol. 43, No. 3, 26-40. (In Chinese, with English abstract)
(《视频助理裁判的引入如何影响中国足球超级联赛净比赛时间》，《体育科学》43（3），26-40页)
Abstract: Utilizing statistics from matches before and after the integration of the Video Assistant Referee (VAR) system in the Chinese Super League (CSL), this study investigated how the adoption of VAR impacts the effective playing time in the CSL. By means of a quantitative regression model, it was revealed that, while keeping other factors constant, the introduction of VAR led to an average increase of 2.39 minutes in effective playing time per game, corresponding to a 2.00% rise in effective playing time proportion. We concluded that the incorporation of VAR triggered alterations in the conduct of involved parties, consequently contributing to the extension of effective playing time. This phenomenon is attributable to four key mechanisms: VAR reduces the time spent on contentious incidents, minimizes covert fouls, VAR-induced stoppages result in visual effects, prompting organizers and referees to pay heightened attention to stoppage time, subsequently leading to an augmentation in injury time. This increase in injury time discourages teams from employing an intentional stalling tactic. Evaluating specific mechanisms through regression analysis indicated that, following the implementation of VAR, both the fouls per game and the red cards and yellow cards notably declined. The utilization of VAR resulted in an average extension of 0.94 minutes in injury time. Nevertheless, in cases where matches exhibited lower levels of suspense, namely when the goals-scored difference is above one, the duration of injury time substantially decreased. These findings underscore that, with regards to the CSL, the introduction of VAR positively affects the conduct of involved parties through a range of mechanisms, culminating in a favorable impact on effective playing time. Moreover, post-VAR introduction, referees display a heightened inclination to prolong injury time, effectively offsetting stoppage time during standard play, thus enhancing the spectator experience. Furthermore, this form of officiating deters leading teams from excessively employing time-wasting tactics, thereby contributing to the enhancement of the league’s quality and the spectator experience.
摘 要:利用中国足球超级联赛(以下简称“中超”)引入视频助理裁判(video assistant referee，VAR)前后的比赛数 据，研究 VAR 的引入如何影响中超的净比赛时间。通过计量回归模型发现，在控制其他变量不变的情况下，引入 VAR 导致场均净比赛时间增加了 2.39 min，净比赛时间的占比增加了 2.00%。分析认为，其原因在于 VAR 的引入导 致了比赛参与各方行为的改变，这些改变导致了净比赛时间的增加。这体现在 4 个机制里，即 VAR 减少了争议事件 的耗时，VAR 减少了隐蔽性犯规，VAR 暂停导致的视觉冲击使主办方和裁判更加关注比赛中的耗时时长从而使伤停 补时阶段的时间有所增加，补时时间的增加又促使球队更少采用拖延时间的战术。通过对部分机制进行计量回归验 证发现，引入 VAR 后场均犯规次数和红黄牌数量均显著减少，引入 VAR 使比赛的补时时间平均增加了 0.94 min。而 当比赛悬念较小，即比分差距在 1 球以上时，补时时间显著减少。这些发现说明，对于中超来说，引入 VAR 能够通过 若干机制影响比赛参与方的行为，对净比赛时间带来正面的影响。同时，引入 VAR 后裁判更加倾向于增加比赛补时 时间的行为不仅弥补了常规比赛阶段中的暂停时间，提升了球迷的观看体验，更会通过这种判罚的信号避免领先的 球队过度使用拖延时间的战术，从而有助于提升联赛的水平和观众的观看体验。
2. Lu, Fei, Minghui Liu, Wuwei Wang and Mei Liu (2022). Impact of polycentric urban network on industrial structure upgrades: evidence from the Yangtze River economic belt. Journal of Urban Planning and Development, Vol. 148, Issue 3.
Abstract: Polycentric urban networks (PUNs) have been found to be an important factor for urban economic growth. This study is based on a PUN analytical framework and features agglomeration effects and network externalities. We examine the relationship between PUNs and industrial structure upgrading, using a data set of 108 cities in the Yangtze River Economic Belt of China from 2005 to 2017. We find that the PUN is associated with an increase in the industrial structure upgrading index, but small cities benefit less from the network. In reference to spatial political economics, new structural economics, and product space theory, we build an analysis framework to explain the mechanism. The main channel is a positive effect of encouraging the spatial flow of factors, promoting regional integration, and enhancing urban innovativeness. This research has significant policy implications for discovering alternative avenues to reform the manufacturing industry and enhancing regional economic development efficiency from a spatial perspective.
1. Wu, Junqian, Haijun Wang and Wuwei Wang (2021). Is Agricultural Trade Opening to Reduce Rural Poverty? ——From the Perspective of Spatial Spillover Effect. China Soft Science, 2021 (4), 22-31. (In Chinese, with English abstract)
(《农产品贸易开放减少农村贫困了吗?——基于空间溢出效应的视角》，《中国软科学》2021（4），22-31页)
Abstract: Based on the panel data of 30 provinces in mainland China from 2002 to 2013, using the actual traffic time to construct the economic distance weight matrix, this paper empirically studies the direct and spillover effect of agricultural products trade opening on rural poverty reduction with the spatial Durbin model, adopting the threshold panel regression model to identify the threshold characteristics of agricultural products trade opening on rural poverty reduction. The results show that: (1) Agricultural products trade opening has a significant positive direct and spatial spillover effect on rural poverty reduction. And the traditional model without considering the spatial spillover effect obviously underestimates the total effect of agricultural products trade opening on rural poverty reduction. (2) The direct and spillover effect of agricultural import trade opening on rural poverty reduction are much greater than the opening of export trade. (3) With the expansion of geographical distance, the spatial spillover effect of agricultural products trade opening on rural poverty reduction will not decrease, instead, the scale effect is formed to improve the influence of rural poverty reduction. (4) Agricultural products trade opening also has a significant threshold effect on rural poverty reduction, and with the increasing of agricultural products trade opening level, the elasticity of rural poverty reduction presents a trend of decreasing.
摘要：基于2002—2013年中国大陆30个省份的面板数据，利用实际交通时间设定经济距离权重矩阵，通过空间 Durbin 模型实证研究农产品贸易开放对农村减贫的直接影响和空间溢出效应，进一步采用门槛面板回归模型识别农产品贸易开放减贫效应的门槛特征。 研究发现:(1)农产品贸易开放对农村减贫有正向显著的直接影响和空间溢出效应，传统上未考虑空间溢出效应的模型设定，低估了农产品贸易开放对农村减贫的总体效应; (2)农产品进口贸易开放的直接影响与空间溢出效应远大于出口贸易开放;(3)农产品贸易开放对农村减贫的空间溢出效应并未产生随距离衰减效应，反而形成规模效应强化了减贫效应;(4)农产品贸易开放对农村减贫具有明显的门槛效应，减贫弹性随着农产品贸易开放水平的提高而降低。
Book Chapters
Lahiri, Kajal, Fushang Liu and Wuwei Wang (2025). On the Estimation of Forecaster Loss Functions Using Density Forecasts. In: Badi H. Baltagi & László Mátyás (Ed.), Seven Decades of Econometrics and Beyond: A Tribute to the Life and Work of Marc Nerlove (Chapter 7. pp. 209-231). Advanced Studies in Theoretical and Applied Econometrics, vol 57. Springer.
Lahiri, Kajal and Wuwei Wang (2021). Estimating macroeconomic uncertainty and discord using info-metrics. In: Min Chen, J. Michael Dunn, Amos Golan & Aman Ullah (Ed.), Advances in Info-Metrics: Information and Information Processing across Disciplines (Chapter 11. pp. 290-324). Oxford University Press.